Summary
In the absence of a recognized international standard supported by major mobile producers(e.g. Open Handset Alliance) for their use of operating systems software such as Android and Symbian;the widespread and rapid growth of users/manufacturers using Android etc. are bound to face major problems regarding commonality of software and interoperability of devices.
It would also lead to serious stability,security and performance problems as highlighted in several of my previous analysis.
Analysis
1. As mentioned in several of my previous analysis, both Apple's iPhone and Google Inc.'s Android based mobile devices ( as well many other manufacturer's devices based on Android ) have serious software problems due to premature and rapid release of products in many global markets -see:
a. Google's VOIP apps via Mobile (blackberry etc. ) dated 07/22/2009
b. Google's VOIP apps via Mobile - a sequel dated 07/31/2009
c. Google's VOIP apps via Mobile -a trilogy dated 07/20/2009
d. Apple eyes the Chinese market with iPhone dated 09/20/2009.
2. With a growing army of manufacturers( such as Motorola Inc., Kyocera , Samsung , Verizon , Sprint Nextel, HTC, Deutsche Telekom's own T-Mobile USA, Dell and Sony , Research In Motion Inc. and Palm Inc. ) launching devices based on Android ( far too rapidly with lack of software stability and too many diverse apps with conflicting goals);this is bound to lead to major conflicts ( even exacberating existing problems ) due to fragmentation of software and lack of internationally recognized standards supported by telecom industry wide platforms and recognized bodies/authority.
Android's fate would be like Unix/Linux ( with hundred's of different variants/versions with minimal commonality,lack of managed/flexibility,scalability, interoperability,portability,common performance criteria- except name and a notional common base concept ).Even internationally recognized standards such as J2ME would be ignored in implementing special features for individual apps making security of data and interoperability impossible.
3. In addition ( as author alluded ) markets like China would hack the code to develop their own versions of Android making launch of same products/brands/apps impossible across international markets.This is bound to lead to confusion and chaos;given the rate of expansion of the market I do not think it would take more than 5 years before we reach such a stage.
4. It would be impossible for Google to maintain a base operating version of Android in the long term ( beyond 5 years maximum ) causing major headaches for support of its own preferred devices.
5. Lastly,but not the least it does not allow for the Android's software base to mature ( normally 5 years minimum for such a widespread global usage ) before it can be farmed out for such a large user base!!
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
