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September 11, 2008

Good Idea, Wrong Justification

Analysis of: Lehman Brothers faces Korean takeover bid | www.timesonline.co.uk
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
John Jukoski, Jr., First VP & Director of Collateral AnalysisJohn Jukoski, Jr.
FormerFirst VP & Director of Collateral Analysis, Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta
Implications: KDB in this case is playing the role of the blind squirrel who finds a nut.  It is wise to invest opportunistically, in ventures that are cheap, WHEN YOU UNDERSTAND THAT YOU ARE NOT KNOWLEDGEBLE IN HOW TO RUN THESE BUSINESSES. 

Analysis: The article states, "The last minute rush to put together a credible group is thought to have been prompted by South Korea’s Financial Services Commission, which privately believes that the country should be pushing to create a global investment banking champion and sees the current woes of Lehman as a perfect opportunity to take control of a Wall Street brand at a knock-down price."  Buying into a business on the cheap and then exerting your control over it, with no knowledge of how to run it, is a foolish endeavor.  If KDB can let Lehman be Lehman as a passive investment, they will reap rewards, especially as it is Lehman, a well run shop caught in the malaise that is this current credit market.  If they choose to purchase a mjor stake in Lehman and use it as a platform to launch something bigger, it will fail.  (See UBS, CSFB)

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
The Bear Sterns Equity Strip Model
September 15, 2008, Author: Mark Mariotti, CEO, Future Management Holdings Inc

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