Summary
1. Ericsson’s overall relationship with AT&T is even more solid than it has been at Verizon. 2. The supplier provides GPON and other gear to AT&T. 3. Ericsson’s expected leadership position in working with Verizon Wireless gives it a high probability of winning at AT&T as well.
Analysis
Just as in the case of Verizon, if Alcatel-Lucent was chosen by AT&T, it would probably be as a secondary vendor. The supplier has not impressed the service provider in general for quite a while. Again, there are concerns about Alcatel-Lucent’s ability to remain a major US supplier. Moreover, given that Ericsson will be well-vetted on 4G, that the vendor will be in a position to offer lower unit costs with high production levels, and that there has been a leaning in general at the carrier to go with one vendor as much as possible, it would not be too surprising if Ericsson won the whole deal.
AT&T is not likely to consider Huawei seriously. It will use the supplier to get Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent to lower their prices – just as was the case at Verizon. There will come a time when AT&T will probably purchase from Huawei in a big way. However, it is just not now. In addition, it is not totally clear that Huawei’s association with Cox Communications was satisfactory.
