Going wireless may or may not be smart, but it's certainly wise !

Implications: Wireless, along with Internet-oriented services, are about the only areas of growth available to wireline carriers these days. Increasing your bets in these areas is risky -- but there are scarcely any other options.

Analysis: Once upon a time, wireline telephone companies offered a "menu" of services, some highly profitable (e.g., long distance) and some not so. Long distance calling was heavily promoted ("Reach out and touch someone!"), and often grew in the 10-15 percent range annually. Economies of scale and technology advances in long distance transmission facilities allowed for good margins, even as prices were steadily reduced over and over again.

Local exchange lines, on the other hand, seldom grew faster than the population did (i.e., 4 or 5 percent a year). A "second line" at a location was prized, as costs were lower than for a new line-new location installation. Certain happenstance events encouraged these second lines: "teenagers" who had to have a separate line in their bedroom, monitored burglar alarms, which worked best when not sharing a line with others, some new thing called the Internet, which was accessed on "dial-up" connections and often tied up a telephone line for hours, and fax machines, which had gotten cheap enough to become common in home offices as well as big businesses.

Everyone of these factors has now reversed, and not only is there no growth in exchange lines, but most wireline carriers are experiencing steady losses in this area.  Do you know any teenagers today that don't have a cell phone? To be tied down to a phone in your bedroom would be "so twentieth century." The growth of the Internet has had multiple impacts: DSL or cable modem service long ago supplanted "dialup," and the peak for fax machine sales was years ago, with email and email attachments taking over except in a few odd situations. Burglar alarms still like traditional telephone lines, but with usage per line drastically reduced, sharing the "main line" isn't such an issue any more.

Of my six adult children, two use their cellphone as their primary or only telephone service -- the traditional wireline telephone line holds no interest at all for them.

With cable operators increasingly competitive with their cable modem services, selling Internet-related services such as DSL lines is increasingly difficult. (And of course in some areas, the cablecos have the nerve to offer "triple-play" services, which includes a digital telephone line - yet another alternative to the traditional telephone company service.)

So what's a wireline carrier to do? Wireless, while competitive, is still reasonably profitable, and is growing. And they've GOT to be in every aspect of the Internet. And hey, even though it's technically and economically challenging, why not launch a television service to get back at those cable guys?