Summary
As a key consultant to global nuclear power utilities and suppliers, I track trends and provide detailed forecasts for nuclear power growth through 2030. My main findings are: 1) China, India, South Korea, and Russia will lead the way in terms of new reactor construction, with over 50% of all new units built by 2020. 2) The future of U.S. nuclear power depends greatly on a few factors, including climate change policy (i.e. a price on carbon that impacts decision-making for nuclear over coal), ability to finance these large capital-intensive projects, and conducive gov't/regulatory environments. It is highly likely that 4-6 new units will be built by 2020, and other 10 or so in the years 2020-2030. 3) A number of nations, including many in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Southeast Asia, are likely to push to deploy their first reactors. These "new nuclear countries" could be as high as 25 by the year 2030.
Analysis
Climate change is one very important driver for reactor growth, but it is not the only determinant for the future of nuclear power. Some countries, such as UK, Japan, and South Korea, are making major efforts to expand nuclear's role in the power mix due to its non-emitting nature.
The potential for the U.S. to ultimately create a cap-and-trade regime for CO2 emissions will clearly benefit nuclear, and climate policies in states like Florida have already helped to push reactor projects forward. In a recent House Energy & Commerce Committee markup of the energy/climate bill, an amendment was successfully included to define nuclear as a non-emitting source under the proposed cap-and-trade program. This is a huge development and if some form of this climate policy becomes law, it should help utilities make the decision to go with new reactors instead of more costly coal-fired plants. Utility executives have acknowledged that with a cost of carbon, they will go with nuclear over coal nearly all of the time.
However, climate change is not the only reason why nuclear power's star is shining. In some instances, there is one overriding factor that pushes the decision towards nuclear, while in others it is a combination of some or all of these factors. In my view, the following ten factors (in no particular order) are most responsible for making nuclear energy a current and future choice for so many utilities and countries around the world: 1) Global energy demand growth, 2) Global warming/climate change, 3) Additional clean air issues, 4) Energy security issues, 5) Need for new baseload power, 6) Economics (especially low O&M costs), 7) Fuel diversification, 8) Long term fuel supplies, 9) Proven track record, and 10) Intangibles (e.g. desire of countries to expand technical know-how, positive public opinion, etc.).
