Summary
Various commentators have stated that significant quantities of crude oil exist off of Cuba's coastline. The question thus becomes: who will provide the investment necessary to extract and refine this crude for consumption? At present, U.S. law prevents U.S. firms from participating in contracts to extract and refine Cuban crude. While that same U.S. law may penalize non-U.S. firms engaging in such extraction by limiting their access to U.S. markets, it would not ban such business in third markets. For many years, large majorities in Congress have signaled their support for loosening or ending the embargo against Cuba. But embargo supporters' adept use of parliamentary processes has enabled retention of the embargo to this day. it is by no means clear that the U.S. government will assign priority to changing this policy in the near future.
Analysis
As an international business policy analyst and advocate with over 20 years of experience, I have worked with many diverse corporations (including energy producers) who recognized the opportunities associated with possible increased commerce with Cuba. Almost without exception, these companies viewed the embargo as counterproductive at several levels.
Anyone who has traveled to Cuba has seen first-hand how European and other countries' companies have established footholds denied to U.S. firms by U.S. law (for example, compare the presence of late-model European cars to the prevalence of pre-embargo, 1950's vintage U.S. cars on Havana's streets). I also have seen first-hand how U.S. policy enables the current Cuban regime to blame U.S. policies for its own shortcomings.
