May 1, 2008
Emerging markets will continue to fuel the growth of global economy
Analysis of:
Global steel prices - brace for a correction? | www.reuters.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Implications: The article rightfully points out to the increase in demand for steel products and metals in general and that countries as India, China and the Middle are one big construction site with high demand for raw metals thus increasing prices of the benchmark products such as hot-rolled carbon steel to a record high. However, the article failed to mention the huge out-put of steel and metals that some of those countries produce, such as China which currently is the number one producing country in th world with 500M MT annually, in additions to the new comers such as Brazil with high quality products but less expensive production cost . What the article also misses is the huge cash reserves that these countries have accumulated and the tremendous economic growth that they are experiencing in certain sectors of some 30% annually with a combined GDP projection of 7-8 %.
Analysis: With the increased demands from the emerging market , high consumption but also increased production in that region and continued investment in certain industries and infrastructure ,supported by governments and in certain instances , government to governmnet, it will be unlikely that the growth will slow in these market in the coming few years, while granted that inflation remains an issue in Asia and South America. The high demand for metals will certainly have a negative impact on the economies in the industrial world, but my prediction is that it will not slow down the growth in Asia and the other emerging markets and that these market will continue to fuel the world economic growth.
Analysis: With the increased demands from the emerging market , high consumption but also increased production in that region and continued investment in certain industries and infrastructure ,supported by governments and in certain instances , government to governmnet, it will be unlikely that the growth will slow in these market in the coming few years, while granted that inflation remains an issue in Asia and South America. The high demand for metals will certainly have a negative impact on the economies in the industrial world, but my prediction is that it will not slow down the growth in Asia and the other emerging markets and that these market will continue to fuel the world economic growth.
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