Driving with the rear-view mirror - Recession Fears Realized

Implications: The Economist recently described specific events that would lead one to believe that the U.S. Economy is already in the throws of a recession, yet the nay-sayers (including our illustrious President) state that there is still some signs of life negating this apparent event. I feel that like the 90's, and later on, we will be looking back and saying, yes, we were in a recession, and why didn't we recognize the numbers that support this truth.    

Analysis: Definition:
What is a recession? It is when you lose your job.
What is a depression? It is when I lose my job.

In the 1990's, some may or may not remember, the U.S. Economy briefly entered into a recession that lasted anywhere from 8 months to 14 months, depending on which think-tank and which economist you polled. However, as the Wall Street Journal reported last week, nearly 80% of the economist polled feel that we are, and have been for the past 4 months, in a recession. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough - most recently, the boom in the Housing Market, which unlike what Mr. Bernanke stated last February, has a 'tentacled-affect' upon a vast amount of industries.

Some signs that I feel were readily visible to the public were as follows:

Inverted Yield Curve: a reliable predictor an approaching recession, which we had last summer and fall.

Lower long-term interest rates 

Higher short-term interest rates 

Banks paying more for deposits than they receive for loans (a recipe for economic disaster) - anyone remember Countrywide Bank?
 
And now with the specter of rising unemployment AND inflation, I feel the U.S. Economy perilously balances between stagflation, and recession -- maybe President Bush and the remaining optimistic-economists (oxymoron) will eventually take off the rose-colored glasses, and realize that we are in a recession, with some of the most difficult fiscal choices to be made in recent history.