Summary
The American Trucking Associations' closely watched advanced seasonally adjusted for-hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.3 percent in September. This came after it increased 2.1 percent in both July and August.
Analysis
It's easy to get caught up in 30- and 90-day windows in America's short-term vision approach to nearly all aspects of U.S. business.
Who's up, who's down, who's coming up at the plate?
But given the notoriously cyclical U.S. trucking market place, it's better to step back and take a slightly wider window of observation.
So don't panic over the 0.3 percent decline in truck tonnage in September, as reported by the American Trucking Associations. Keep in perspective this index rose 2.1 percent in both July and August, so it's a net gain for the summer, really.
In fact, compared with September of 2007, the seasonally adjusted truck tonnage indext was off 7.3 percent. That is the best year-over-year showing since November of 2008.
Bob Costello, who oversees the numbers behind the index as ATA's chief economist, says don't panic and don't be alarmed by the very small increase in September.
"We took two steps forward in July and August, and this was a minuscule step backward," he says.
He warned of future fluctuations as the nation's shippers and manufacturers burn through their inventory before replenishing their supply chains.
"I'm confident the industry is still on the road to recovery," Costello said.
For there to be a robust recovery, there must be improvement in two key sectors -- housing and autos. Also, the stubbornly high inventory-to-sales ratio has to come down to some degree of normalcy.
But with large truckload fleets such as J.B. Hunt, Werner Enterprises, Swift Transportation and others taking out more than 10 percent of its over-the-road capacity the past two years, there is hope that soon the capacity-volume equilibrium will be reached.
There is still as much as 15 percent overcapacity in the LTL sector. YRC Worldwide's lenders appear to have made the decision that the financially ailing LTL giant is still worth more as a struggling entity than it would be worth in liquidation. That hurts rivals UPS Freight, FedEx Freight, Old Dominion Freight Line and others who would benefit the most from a YRCW shutout.
