Does P&T's closure assure another $30/admt price increase in NBSK?

Implications: The three mills - Harmac, MacKenzie (BC) and Halsey (OR) were producing 1 million mt/year most for export to the Far East.  How will all the papermills who had been depending on this high strength softwood be able to cope?   Already the market is snug with supply and demand in balance.  It is very difficult to substitute any other softwood for NBSK whether it's Radiata Pine from Chile or Southern Pine from the US.  Many mills in Japan,Korea, China and Indonesia will be in trouble after the last shipments arrive. However, this is good news for all the other suppliers in Russia, Canada, Sweden and Finland since this reduction is supply assures them that a $30/admt price increase on June lst will be accepted....bringing the list price of NBSK up to an all time high of US$910/admt.  In spite of this high price, Canadian mills still claim it is not enough to put half of them into the profit column.

Analysis: The Harmac mill, whose NBSK has been a bellweather for over 50 years, is a mill in need of a huge capital investment to rebuild its #3 recovery boiler.  This will cost $100 million.  The mill could operate on just #1 and #2 boilers but this would limit production to no more than 295,000mt/year....a figure below what some experts say is needed for breakeven (i.e. 350,000mt/year).  Many of the most experienced mill workers have already gone to the Alberta oil fields and the townspeople have shown no sympathy for the mill's plight.  Consequently, many believe this once famous mill will never operate again.
Halsey, OR on the other hand produces some FLuff Pulp (a solid growth grade now with a list price of $900/admt and do to go up on June 1st), also has a tissue operation.  Logic says that GP (Koch Industries) should be interested in owning and operating this mill.
MacKenzie, the 3rd mill, is north of Vancouver but with low inland freight costs for export.  It's smaller in size but still viable.
Another conjecture among industry observers is that APP might come back into the picture and offer to buy the company for even less than the low ball bid of $215 million they offered in April.  It's most people's guess that this situation will be resolved within the next month or two since allowing a pulp mill to sit idle brings about considerable maintenance problems.  The real question is "who's going to be the operating the mills?".