Disappointing Turnout at FTTH Conference Could Signify Temporary Lull in Market

Implications: 1.      The number of people actually attending the just concluded FTTH Conference was at least 40 percent lower than the original estimates. 2.      Perhaps a big part of the problem is that there really have not been any dramatic changes in the fiber to the home market for a while. 3.      Once it becomes clear, as has been expected, that “AT&T...[will no longer] remain committed to [its] fiber-to-the-node networks indefinitely,” there will be a new surge of interest in the technology.

Analysis:  Most of the panel sessions at the last FTTH Conference centered on topics that seemed to be old hat.  There were the standard discussions on IPTV, monitoring networks, regulatory obstacles, and MDU optimization.  But there was nothing too exciting in terms of new developments.  The scant amount of press coverage at the show was an indication of the state of affairs.  Even the usual cheerleaders in the market research crowd have tempered their enthusiasm.   

Unfortunately, it has taken much longer for AT&T’s new leadership to make its intended shift away from FTTN.  They are still fighting off the outmoded way of thinking by some executives that widespread deployment of video, including HDTV, can still be pulled off over copper.  In fact, there was one attendee at the conference who complained that after AT&T dismantled his satellite connection and installed U-verse, the technician came to the conclusion only at the end of the process that the length of the copper made it impossible to work – and then the tech was unable to reconnect the customer back to satellite.  

The good news is that the opportunities for carriers overbuilding with FTTH in the US still appear to be bright.  And Verizon appears to be planning to go on another tear to sell more FiOS services in the first quarter of 2009 as they did in the 1st quarter of 2008.