Cummins Now Going Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) With All Engine Models

Implications: Cummins Inc. announced they are switching to SCR in their Heavy-duty ISX model for 2010. It was previously to utilize Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) at a higher rate than today, along with higher injection pressures and other enhancements - plus emissions credit trading. While this changes the “few changes” pitch they had for 2010, this puts them more in line with the rest of the marketplace. Now - how about Navistar and any 2009 pre-buy implications?

Analysis: The switch to SCR on the Cummins heavy-duty model was expected eventually, but not before the 2010 model came out and definitely not this soon. A two-week decision is pretty quick - and an indicator of what was being seen in testing. While the marketing pitch will have to be heavily modified, their move makes sense for a variety of reasons. The best approach is a mix of EGR for lighter power demands with SCR to handle the high demand situations - now the approach of almost everyone worldwide.

Through June of this year, we explored the SCR versus EGR debate and ended up with technical, performance, durability and overall cost bias toward SCR. The truck manufacturers had announced their approaches and the needed educational marketing process had also started. Cummins had the luxury of sorts in going both ways, so the move to SCR is not a tough one. They will have to do some accelerated testing even into production units, but again that is nothing new in this industry - but still a risk.

The move addresses real life concerns regarding fuel mileage and heat - and puts the Cummins engine back on par from these aspects with competitors’ engines. It also fits well with Paccar’s SCR approach with their DAF entry and the rebranded Cummins mid-range. It also fits well with Daimlers’ brands and SCR platforms in heavy and medium-duty offerings. The same can be said now about Volvo. Customers like consistency in approaches - and the majority of the US market will be SCR.

This leaves Navistar and their non-SCR approach for 2010 with a potential fuel economy issue, along with the lingering heat question. They will have the emission trading game to play with for a while. There will however be an interesting issue with offering the same “revised” Cummins engine with SCR in the Navistar lineup in 2010. It will also be interesting in the longer-term approach of the new Caterpillar / Navistar engine team.

Technical folks - like me - often find humor is things. The standard joke about the new catalyst material that is driving this switch - copper zeolite - is sometimes called lightweight kitty-litter. Joke - some kitty litter is made from zeolite, so this could have been a good solution for Caterpillar had they stayed in the game! Zeolite is actually a name for a hundred-plus mineral-versions used from filtration to agriculture to petrochemicals - and to help kitty litter clump. It’s a readily available mineral.

Seriously, will this change the predicted “nonevent” pre-buy strategies for 2009? Our estimation is NOT! As we have noted in previous missives, from a buyers standpoint it’s primarily today about freight, financing and fuel - and nothing has changed with these. The safest bet is to take ones’ time in doing anything - and then bet on the future.