Cosmopolis mill will add needed capacity to an oversold dissovling pulp market

Implications: Dissolving pulp has been in short supply for at least a year.  Prices is January for commodity rayon/viscose pulp were US$800 but now in September they top $1100/mt.  Producers are shipping every ton they can produce.  SAPPI-Saiccor in South Africa and RGM's BahiaPulp in Brazil are the two largest and two lowest cost producers but both use eucalyptus as their fiber source. will the reopened Cosmpolis, WN mill be able to compete if the market ever softens. Mills in BC have had to take downtime because of chip shortages and the Union has threatened to shut down 31 sawmills.  Has the Cosmopolis mill taken all this into consideration and where will they be sourcing their fiber?   This is a serious problem and the question has to be asked "where are their long term fiber supplies coming from" The predominate tree species in the mill's area is Douglas Fir and Hemlock.  Will these old trees provide the long/higher strength fibers to carve out a value-added niche in the dissolving market?

Analysis: When the mill closed Weyerhaeuser made it clear that it was an old mill with high maintenance libility, produced only 500mt/day (very small by world standards), and had some serious environmental and labor union problems.  In other words - it was no longer viable.  It now appears the State Dept. of Ecology is prepared to issue the needed permits for the mill to reopen.  The union has done its part by agreeing to a lower wage scale and more accomodating work rules.
Having been able to purchase the mill for much less than replacement costs (i.e. pennies on the dollar), Charlestown Investments will be able to upgrade the mill's infrastructure to reduce needed maintenance.
Mr. Basset of Charlestown Inv. has announced plans for a doubling of the mill's capacity within the first two years of operation.  This will greatly reduce the cost of overhead/ton produced and bring in other economies of scale.
The mill will start up on "commodity" (i.e. less demanding) pulp for the hungry Asian rayon textile market.  A year ago rayon-grade dissolving pulp sold for US$760/admt.  By January the selling price was up to $800 and now it has jumped to $1100+/admt with no signs of levelling off.   Few industry observers foresaw this growth in rayon textiles.  China, Indonesia and India are the three major rayon textile producers.
Mr. Basset has made it clear the mill will not remain in the rayon grade pulp business any longer than is necessary before it moves up to a value added pulp grade capable of producing cellulose di-acetate for the cigarette filter tow business in China.   For this the stronger, higher degree of Polymerization hemlock and douglas fir fiber should be quite beneficial.