Summary
Lack of sun spot activity, volcano eruption in Alaska and the return of an El Niño all paint a cooler then normal summer for the major crop areas in the US according to this report. What would the impact be on the corn and soybean crops?
Analysis
Long-term weather forecasting is not a science yet. It is easy to see why when one considers that this report is taking into consideration a volcano eruption last March in Alaska, sun spot activity over the past two years and the possible transition of the water temperatures in the south pacific from a La Niña to an El Niño year.
It is been colder then normal so far this Spring in most of the Plains and in addition it has been very wet in the Corn Belt east of the Mississippi. This has delayed corn and soybean seeding to the extent that US corn crop yields are projected to be down from trend lines by the USDA. It is going to result in less corn being planted then last estimates, with a switch of some acres (1-2 million) to soybeans as planting wraps up in the next 2 weeks, weather permitting.
While there is no question that there was a volcanic eruption, there is still doubt that we will move directly from a La Niña to El Niño, or that this will occur until the end of this year. The ocean surface temperatures in the South Pacific are rising quickly, which could mean we will not have a normal neutral period and could move into an El Niño later this summer. That could have an impact on the temperature here, but would have an even more severe impact on rains in Australia and the major Palm areas of Indonesia and Malaysia resulting in drought.
Sun spot activity is has been boring for sun observers such as my self. We should be have hit bottom in the 11 year sun spot cycle a year ago, but instead have seen hardly any sun spots over the last 18 months. Comparing this to the 17th and 19th century is of little use to US farmers, given that there are no weather or crops going back that far. One meteorologist last year told me that he had found a direct correlation between no sun spot activity and hot dry weather in the eastern corn belt. Given the weather we have had since he said this a year ago, I think that the complexity of weather forecasting proved him wrong.
Once again world stocks of soybeans will be critically low at the end of the 2008/2009 crop year. Corn inventories are projected to drop in the 2009/2010 crop year and if we have further weather and related crop issue in North America this Summer, prices could pop once again. At the same time, good weather and moisture with improved seeds and farm management could result in a bumper soybean crop and a decent corn crop yet. Keep your eyes to the skies.
