Contrasting housing markets

Implications: Finally we have the first forecast of a housing recovery that seems believable. The five year forecast for Phoenix appeals to my sense of reality and I agree. I also agree that we will forget the current pain and euphoria will reign again.

Analysis: There was a contrasting report regarding the Canadian market that is completely the opposite. The Canadian markets are feeling the effects of oil and mineral exploration, basic blocking and tackling. See the article 2007 a Good Year For Canadian Real Estate at http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2008/01/16/2007-a-good-year-for-can. The report is interesting and probably parallels the growth statistics for Soviet bloc countries and other Petrodollar economies. I must admit that the regional economy where I missed the point the last few years was Las Vegas. I had thought that the trip to Las Vegas was a must part of the recreation for travelers and that there would be a stabilizing effect on the housing market. In fact, Las Vegas leads or is among the leaders in various statistical housing categories including foreclosures, delinquencies and loss of value. This comes to mind as I see the report of the bankruptcy of the Cosmopolitan Casino. Las Vegas is going to suffer from the current financial stress the major financial institutions are undergoing and the pain may accelerate before it gets better. I now have the feeling that not only was Las Vegas one of the first to feel pain but also may be among the last to recover.