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December 13, 2006

Continental and Northwest looked at it before

Analysis of: Continental Shares Rise on Merger Talk | news.airwise.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Andrew Dickson, Managing DirectorAndrew Dickson
FormerManaging Director, Commercial Capital Inc.
Implications: •  Northwest Airlines' "golden share" is an obstacle for Continental to seek M&A with anyone but NWA

•  Continental can defend against bids if needed with strong management and over $2 billion cash

•  In 2000 the Justice Department forced Northwest Airlines to sell down its stake in Continental Airlines http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/cases/f6100/6161.htm

•  One wonders how much the creditors at NWA would take for the "golden share"

Analysis: NWA and CAL have a long standing relationship, which includes a long code share agreement.  These two carriers must have considered the prospect of merging in 2000, when they were sued by the US Department of Justice.  They should still know what the numbers look like for joint operations.

What has changed since then is their relative strength, and that Justice might allow this to go through.  One can assert that the management not experiencing recent bankruptcy might be dominant.  If Continental has objections to a merger they could defend against it from the bankrupt NWA.

If Continental has a desire to merge or acquire another airline, it appears to be able to do so without the permission of NWA with a cash purchase.  It would need a sponsor as coinvestor. 

Also, CAL could perhaps offer the creditors of NWA a price that is attractive enough to free them up from the "golden share."  The NWA creditors may have a different set of incentives than the management.

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
Continental Likely to Acquire, Rather than be Acquired
December 12, 2006, Author: GLG Expert Contributor

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