Summary
The search engine business has matured. Users have chosen their preferred search engine. Only gradual market share shifts are likely in the future, and generally away from the search engines that make major changes to their look and feel.
Analysis
Though no TV network has a substantially better evening news broadcast viewers developed trust for their preferred evening news network and rarely change. Shifts in viewer preference happen at a steady low rate as a result of personal changes in people's lives more than anything that the broadcasters tweak. Relatively noticeable changes, such as a change of news anchor by a network, will tend to drive away more viewers than it attracts (hence the long careers of news anchors).
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Search engines are now used regularly by many, if not most, Americans of all demographic groups. As a result, the average sophistication of users, in terms of noticing new features or better quality of results, has declined. Users have developed trust for their preferred search engine and shifts in user preference happen at a low rate.
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Major shifts in market share of the major search engines is unlikely. The recent change to the look and feel in Microsoft's switch from Live to Bing without a substantial differentiator from Google in terms of features or quality has probably decreased Microsoft's market share if it has had any measurable effect at all.
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At the same time, Google's quality improvements and feature additions are unnoticed by most users and are also unlikely to effect market share, except for with America's commercially insignificant nerd demographic.
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
