Summary
Even though at most a public insurance option would enroll between four and six million people, it nevertheless has become the flash point of disagreement among moderate Republicans (like Senator Snowe, R-ME), centrist Democrats (like Blanche Lincoln, D-NE), Independents (Joseph Lieberman, I-CT) and more liberal Democrats (like Roland Burris, D-IL). Despite its red herring status (see my immediately previous post) a compromise must be struck to save health care reform.
Analysis
That compromise is increasingly looking like the "trigger option". The current Senate Bill provides for a public insurance plan, but allows any state to opt out (which, presumably those states represented by centrist Democrats against the public option would do so). However, some centrist Democrats from "Red States" want to go further and require states to proactively "opt in" to the public insurance option plan. However, even this more stringent plan draws the support of no Republican (not even Senator Snowe from Maine or her cohort, Senator Susan Collins, R-ME). That doesn't even get Senator Lieberman's vote and possibly not even Senator Lincoln's.
However, the "trigger plan" by which no state would be required to offer a public option plan unless it was determined that a certain TBD percentage of legal residents could not otherwise afford coverage, not only would be supported by all of the centrist Democrats above, but also Senator Snowe (since it was her idea) and possibly even Senator Susan Collins. Moreover, since the primary purpose of the public insurance option is to provide such coverage to those citizens otherwise finding private insurance unaffordable, it probably would not lose enough (if any) liberal Democrats so that the Senate could achieve cloture with 60 "aye" votes to stop debate and pass health care reform prior by December 18 and the beginning of a long Holiday Break.
Then, during the reconciliation process with the House version, so long as the compromise bill could set the threshold for the trigger not so high to lose enough liberal Democrats to not pass the House. while setting it high enough not to lose enough centrist Democrats, Senators Lieberman, Snowe and/or Collins, then there will be an historic bill signing ceremony the morning of the President's First State of the Union Address in late January/early February.
