Summary
World leaders who met on Tuesday at the United Nations to discuss climate change were challenged by 10 year records showing no climate change. This makes enactment of a Climate Treaty tedious. Skeptics use the 10 year temperature plateau as evidence that global warming is a chimera. Scientists say the climate stability results from cyclical variations in ocean conditions and is unrelated to the effect of greenhouse gases. Next decade may be even cooler. The public does not care.
Analysis
Absent hard evidence that human activity causes global warming, taxing people to pay for it is difficult. If the functionaries are unable to "sell" global warming to the public, taxation measures will stall or be diluted to infinitesimal amounts. This means that the world energy policy advisors may have to forego annual salary increases and bonuses may be meager. To compound the misery, the worldwide economic downturn is expected to cause carbon emissions to drop more this year than in the last 40. The International Energy Agency has said that global carbon emissions will fall by 2.6% this year. The Chinese, for their contribution to the international effort say that they will plant more trees. Trees, plants, grass and flowers depend on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to sustain growth. Florae use a process caused photosynthesis to produce complex carbohydrates from carbon dioxide, water and inorganic salts. Sunlight is the energy source aided by chlorophyll, a green pigment that acts as a catalyst. Thus if the financial crisis extends through several years, production of carbon dioxide could conceivably fall below the minimum required to sustain plant life. This could be a disaster as bad or even worse than flooding caused by rising temperatures because it would lead to food crop shortages. These reverses should, but may not, dampen the enthusiasm for a quick treaty on climate. The United Nations Climate event has been heavily hyped. An announcement (made with a yawn), that urgency of action is no longer required would be a diplomatic gaffe. This suggests the summary statement will merely note the readiness of the energy policy analysts to act with despatch if and when the temperature goes up plus a possible caveat that preparing for global cooling may be more practical in view of predictions of lower temperatures for a decade or so. "My son, you will learn with what little wisdom the world is governed" Count Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna (1583-1654) Swedish statesman.
Michael Lynch consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
