Summary
1. With ‘”no time set for a launch,’” Ciena is behaving like other telecom vendors that have dominated markets. 2. It is putting out a message to help prevent other suppliers from potentially making inroads with their systems. 3. That being it is only a matter of time before Ciena makes improvements – just sit tight.
Analysis
There appears to be some confusion and misunderstanding by some industry analysts as it relates to the next set of changes for Ciena’s CoreDirector. First of all, there is the implication that the rate of deployment by its major customers is directly linked with the short-term improvements on the system. This assumption is not necessarily the case.
Apparently, it is not a situation as in the past when Ciena had to make major changes to its optical cross-connect just to get back in the space. In fact, we had coined the new system, CoreDirector II, at the time because of the extent of the alterations. In this case, the modifications are rather minor in nature – which Ciena has not been secret about -- that it will involve additional packet capability and more of a direct connection with the CN 4200. But the comments suggesting that the manufacturer has a major overhaul in mind for now are evidently not correct – although as we pointed out in previous articles, ultimately this will have to be a necessary step for Ciena in the longer term.
At least for the US market, Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei Technologies will not likely be “the heavy hitters” going forward. As we have discussed, Tellabs is going to be the big wild card.
