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September 12, 2008

China's pulping capacity expansion-who's supplying the chips?

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Dave Hillman, Independent ConsultantDave Hillman
Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
Implications: China's rapidly expanding paper industry definitely needs huge quantities of pulp.  Domestic production is preferable to importing. But, pulp mills require reasonably priced chips in large quantity on a consistent basis.  Where will these chips come from?  Can enough Pine plantations be planted?  Will food production suffer?  What will these new pulp mills do while waiting for these plantations to mature in 22-25 years ? Importing chips from the Pacific NW and BC may be the answer.  Sawmills which have shut down for lack of dimension lumber orders may become chip mills.  But, already Japan, Korea and China are estimating their annual chip needs at 18.4million mt.   Can these chip mills ramp up to supply these new pulp mills being planned?

Analysis: A new greenfield pulp mill will currently cost US$1.5 billion to produce 3500mt/day (1.3 million mt/year).  A program to produce 4.8 million mt/year will require 4 new mills having an appetite of 20 million mt of chips.  These new mills can come on stream in 28 months but a Pine plantation takes 22-25 years to mature.  What will these new mills do in the meantime?  Obviously one answer is to import chips (it's no longer feasible to ship whole logs) probably from the Pacific NW and British Columbia.  20 million mt of chips would require 450 vessel sailings/year or over 35 per month.   This is all in addition to the 18.4 million that is on the books!  Can the world, in the short term, supply 38 million mt of chips until China's plantations begin to mature? 
It is for this reason that I question the feasibility of planning huge pulping expansions simply based on the country's domestic paper needs.  You can build the pulp mills but supplying them with reasonably priced chips on a regular/consistent basis is a huge problem!

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
China's Forests CANNOT Support These Planned Pulp Mills
September 15, 2008, Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
What Chinese Pulp Expansion?
September 12, 2008, Author: GLG Expert Contributor
China's new capacity of 8 mills, averages out to over 2 MM green tons per mill.
September 12, 2008, Author: Brad Franchi, President, Forest Strategies, LLC.

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