China will master wind turbine power

Implications: China is working all avenues of energy supply, ranging from coal fired, nuclear and giant hydroelectric plants with crude crude imports from the Middle East and LNG from Asia Pacific.  In addition China will increase wind power from 10 GW to 20 GW in the near future, requiring 70% domestic content of the wind turbine power plants.

Analysis: China has the key technology of advanced turbine blade designs and is working with GE to supply Chinese gearboxes meeting GE reliability specifications.  The advanced aerodynamic technology has it's roots in the leadership and teachings of Prof. Y. C. Lee, once Professor at Caltech under Prof. von Karman. There is no doubt in my mind that China will be successful to master the integration of advanced blade designs with reliable gearboxes and variable speed generators.  Of course, the leading wind turbine companies like GE, Vestas, Siemens, Gamesa and Enercon as well as Suzlon (provided they solve their blade problems) will form joint ventures with new Chinese wind power companies to keep some portion of the Chinese wind power market and potentially have new Chinese component suppliers for the tight wind turbine market in the US.  The US wants to increase wind power from 16 GW to 160 GW by 2025.  This may be somewhat optimistic, but has possibilities with increased global component supplies.