April 15, 2008
Challenging the conventional wisdom that the Yahoo saga is good for Google.
Analysis of:
News Corp., AOL Pursue Yahoo Deals | online.wsj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Implications: A recent piece in Forbes was titled, Micro Who? Google Rules The Ad Roost. Basically the longer this goes on, the better it is for Google. while it doesn't hurt Google to see their competitive set take whacks at each other, this is the same Google who needs to find more balance in their overall offerings. Can Google use this time to work out some of the kinks with Doubleclick and figure out a more competitive display offering.
Analysis: I keep hearing the longer the Yahoo deal takes, the better it is for Google to establish their true dominance in the digital space. Conventional wisdom says as the most stable outfit, they'll benefit the most during this turmoil- not to mention whatever cash infusion they receive from Yahoo's 2 week test outsourcing their clicks.
But true dominance in politics, sports, business, Tiddly Winks, etc., is established not when the competition is weakened but when one person, team or entity is at the height of their productivity. Google's ability to benefit during however long this process takes while be tethered to their ability to stabilize and augment the number of qualified paid clicks they're receiving and just as important, work out the nuts and bolts of becoming a true force in display media. Right now, most digital media buyers will tell you Google's still very much a one click pony. In the past few weeks they've made a number of overtures to pitch YouTube custom channels and new display offerings but everything is still in their nascent stage.
A more likely scenario will be that Google benefits but the real benefit will be splintered amongst a number of digital possibilities including ad networks that supply reach, content sites that supply greater customization and the next generation of social media players who may not currently receive the ad dollars they could given their level of knowledge about their users matches a Yahoo (LinkedIn anyone?).
I love the education of the digital space because of what it's not: Chock full of conventional wisdom.
Analysis: I keep hearing the longer the Yahoo deal takes, the better it is for Google to establish their true dominance in the digital space. Conventional wisdom says as the most stable outfit, they'll benefit the most during this turmoil- not to mention whatever cash infusion they receive from Yahoo's 2 week test outsourcing their clicks.
But true dominance in politics, sports, business, Tiddly Winks, etc., is established not when the competition is weakened but when one person, team or entity is at the height of their productivity. Google's ability to benefit during however long this process takes while be tethered to their ability to stabilize and augment the number of qualified paid clicks they're receiving and just as important, work out the nuts and bolts of becoming a true force in display media. Right now, most digital media buyers will tell you Google's still very much a one click pony. In the past few weeks they've made a number of overtures to pitch YouTube custom channels and new display offerings but everything is still in their nascent stage.
A more likely scenario will be that Google benefits but the real benefit will be splintered amongst a number of digital possibilities including ad networks that supply reach, content sites that supply greater customization and the next generation of social media players who may not currently receive the ad dollars they could given their level of knowledge about their users matches a Yahoo (LinkedIn anyone?).
I love the education of the digital space because of what it's not: Chock full of conventional wisdom.
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