Implications
General Motors has been exploring and developing alternative drivetrains for many years. These designs have not yet reached the stage of commercial viability for a variety of reasons. However recent events such as increased fuel prices, tougher fuel economy regulations, increased public concerns for the environment, concerns with dependence on foreign oil dependence have raised the level of these efforts. The introduction of the Volt concept car with its projected battery powered range, and backup gasoline engine "range extender" has fired up public enthusiasm. This could be a break through vehicle for GM if they can pull it off. It really depends on the viability of the lithium-ion battery pack.
Analysis
For many years General Motors has had advance development programs exploring new technologies which could ultimately replace the current internal combustion engines in its products. These programs have explored possible diesel, hydrogen, fuel cell, and electric battery powered vehicles. While each of these alternatives has shown some level of technical feasibility, they have fallen far short of either economic or consumer expectations.
General Motors offered diesel powerplants in its products in response to the gas shortages of the 80’s. These were conversions of existing spark ignitions engines and they were met with customer dissatisfaction because of excessive noise and vibrations, hard starting in cold weather and smelly exhaust fumes. While current diesel technology and cleaner burning diesel fuels have resolved these negative aspects, the memories of those earlier failures have left a distaste in many customers for diesel powered General Motors vehicles. European automotive manufacturers have operated in a high fuel cost environment for a long time and their diesel-powered vehicles are widely accepted by their European customers, and interestingly enough are beginning to be purchased by American customers of premium vehicles. I expect that General Motors and other producers will introduce diesel powerplants in many of their products because of the increased fuel economy requirements imposed by the new federal standards. Diesels are attractive in this regard as they can improve miles per gallon performance by as much as 25%. However these powerplants come at a substantial cost penalty and many again fail to meet with customer acceptance for quite a different reason. In my locale the price of diesel fuel is about 30% higher than regular grades of gasoline. I expect that customer who have to pay a premium for diesel engines will be surprised to discover that the cost per mile ($/mi) to drive their new vehicle is higher than a gasoline powered automobile. Unless the higher relative cost of diesel fuel is eliminated, I see problems with high volume sales of diesel powered vehicles.
General Motors has looked at hydrogen powered vehicles for some time. This is a very attractive alternative as it eliminates dependence on imported oil and the product of its combustion is water. Hydrogen can be used in an internal combustion engine or in a fuel cell. There are technical problems with fuel storage, but the biggest hurdle is the lack of a hydrogen supply infrastructure. It would take a major national effort to create this needed supply network before hydrogen powered vehicles from General Motors, or anyone else, can be viable.
Battery powered automobiles were manufactured from the early days of the automotive industry. At the beginning of the 20th century electric vehicles competed with steam and gasoline powered vehicles. The limited range of these early vehicles sealed their fate. In recent years General Motors produced a test fleet on battery powered vehicles, the EV-1’s. Battery technology had not improved much over the intervening century any these contemporary electric vehicles failed to meet customer expectations for an acceptable range.
This brings us to the General Motors Chevrolet Volt. The concept is to extend the range of a battery powered vehicle with a small gasoline (could be diesel) engine to recharge the battery on the fly. Given the recent run up in gasoline prices, the new fuel economy standards, concerns for CO2 emissions, and increased public concern for the environment combined to generate a great deal excitement when the Volt concept show car was shown to the public. Perhaps more the General Motors anticipated. In any case, GM’s response has been to put the Volt program on the very fast tract and to commit to an introduction as a 2010 product. This involves no small amount of risk for GM, particularly considering the slow sales start of its dual mode hybrid drive system on its large trucks and SUV’s. My opinion is that the most of the technical issues raised in the article will be resolved in this timeframe except for the old bugaboo of batteries. The old EV-1 used nickel metal-hydride batteries. The plan for the Volt is to employ the new lithium-ion batteries, which are substantially smaller and lighter than then a comparable EV-1 like system. The reliability, durability and high volume production of lithium-ion batteries is yet to be proven. That is where all of the testing cited in the article is focused. General Motors must have a fairly high level of confidence in the program to allow such a open public look at its progress in the development of the Volt vehicles. It is always possible to accept a short battery-only range using the more commercial developed nickel metal-hydride batteries. Perhaps this fall back plan is what gives GM the confidence that it is displaying.
