Can Murdoch finally rescue Premiere?

Implications: Murdoch is back in Germany? (Potential) investors of Premiere and other German TV and cable assets ought to know: Is this a savy move of a shrewd businessman or a dull act of an aging tycoon to the only place in the world where he has, so far, failed.

Analysis: In 2002, Rupert Murdoch said good-bye to Germany, after a total write-off of €1bn of his stake in Premiere which soon after filed for bankruptcy protection. It was the biggest single loss in Murdoch's decade-long career as media mogul, even until today.
Now he is back - and he came the same way he left, as stakeholder of Premiere.
The big question is: Is he driven by revenge and sentimentality or by wise entrepreneural spirit and a thorough analysis of figures and market conditions.
It apparently didn't take him long to prepare his comeback. The negotiations with Premiere stakeholder Unity Media, only took a few days before a deal was cut. Murdoch's News Corp agreed to take over Unity's 14,58% stake for €287 (€17.5 per share), a premium of roughly 40% at the time the deal was announced.
In 1999, the first time, he entered Premiere, the cost were more than four times as high, for a stake of 24 percent.
At that time, Premiere was a very different company, run by the Kirch Group, laden by technological infrastructre, laden with debts and piled-up losses, and, what turned out to be most fatal, full of obscure deals with other parts of the Kirch conglomerate.
Today, Premiere is a lean company which actually makes some money (at least irregularly). No more crazy output deals with Hollywood, no more company-owned set-top-boxes. In a nutshell: this time, the basis for a business deal that actually makes sense are much higher. 
Yet one ought not forget how a-normal the German TV market is, with its weired regulations (child protection prohibits free channel surfing for Premiere subscribers, even the ones without children), its pitchwork of cable operators and its strong Free TV market (both on the commercial and psb front).
It doesn't make it easier that Premiere soon has to negotiate an urgently needed renewal of the TV rights for the live soccer games of the Bundesliga, the most valuable Pay-TV asset in Germany. The man who will act as new broker for the Bundesliga sale is a person well known to Murdoch: Leo Kirch.
Yet Kirch, who went bankrupt in spring 2002, certainly did not prepare his spectacular comeback only to act as TV rights mediator. He obviously wants back what once belonged to him. Above all, his last great venture: Premiere.
Thus, investors who like to speculate on deals driven by power battles instead of true valuations might like to look at Premiere shares. Others have to be careful, maybe today more than ever.