CRP acres coming back, but how many will depend on what changes USDA does, or doesn't make in the program.

Implications: Expiring contracts may add two million acres a year to planted area in the US, but don't look for many contracts to be "broken" unless they were recently signed, as the penalty's are too severe, even with high commodity prices. It seems likely that given the current situation with a poor crop in the fields (flooding and late planting) and high prices, changes in the program are somewhat likely, and if they occur, they will have some market impact.

Analysis: Expiring contracts could add 2M acres per year to US crop acreage, but exceeding that number will likely require some change in policy from USDA on the program. 

Current penalties for leaving early require all payments to be repaid plus interest, plus a 25% additional penalty on one-year's payment.  Even with the current high commodity prices, anyone that has been in the program for any length of time, will find that too steep of a price to pay.

Another complication is the fact that a recent (2007) re-enrollment program (known internally as REX) re-upped 23M of the 28M acres that were due to expire in the 2007-2010 time period.  More highly erodible farms were put into new 10 to 15 year contracts, so those farms might be more likely to leave their contracts, since the penalties would be relatively low.  Less erodible farms were simply extended for periods of 5 years or less, so they would face penalties based on their original contracts, which would be significant, and would make breaking their contracts mostly non-feasible.  So the poorest land that needs protection the most has the biggest incentive to flee and farm....unless a change is made in the rules.

According to this article from IA State, it is feasible that 2M acres per year, for 10 years, could be brought back into production, which at its conclusion, would amount to an increase in planted area of 6% over today's production area.

It seems likely that given the current situation with a poor crop in the fields (flooding and late planting) and high prices, changes in the program are somewhat likely, and if they occur, they will have some market impact.