CQ1 2007 Drive Estimates and 2007 Projections

• Seagate, Western Digital, Fujitsu and Toshiba have reported on their HDD unit shipments in CQ1 2007
• Although unit numbers were down from Q4 2007 this appears to be relatively normal seasonality
• HDD shipments are increasingly influenced by consumer electronics trends and there is a danger of declining consumer confidence and spending
• Despite these dangers I predict about 490 million HDD shipping in 2007, up 13.4 % from 2006

Western Digital, Seagate, Fujitsu and Toshiba have reported their HDD shipment in for the March 2007 quarter. Still remaining outstanding are reports for Hitachi and Samsung so this estimate is not final. I estimates about 114 million HDDs of all types were shipped in the March 2007 quarter. This is down from 119 million HDDs shipped in the December 2006 quarter but not unexpected due to normal seasonality. Year over year unit growth was about 7% for the March quarter.

I project that the June 2007 quarter will be about flat at 114 million units. Total shipments for the second half of the year will be higher with year end shipments estimated at 492 million units (an increase of about 13.4% over 2006). Some highlights of the 2007 projection are: significant decline in 1-inch shipments, continued growth in SATA drives in enterprise and consumer applications and continued faster growth of laptop vs. desktop computers.

If these trends continue then by the next decade consumer electronics will be the single largest user of HDDs, 2.5-inch HDDs and smaller will dominate total HDD shipments and annual HDD shipments will exceed 1 Billion units per year.