Both AF-KL and Air One look as second-best partners for Alitalia, LH would have been the best

Implications: At the end of the process, only AF-KL and tiny Air One have remained as the alternatives for the Italian Government to go ahead with Alitalia's sale. It is however quite doubtful that any of the two ones are really good partners for the troubled Italian carrier, given their historical strategic fit (AF-KL) and their limited business range (Air One). Lufthansa, that decided to stay out, would have been the real best-in-class choice to turnaround the Italian carrier, provided a full support from politicians and unions that eventually the German carrier was probably not able to get.

Analysis: In a few hours, we will know the Italian Government's choice over Alitalia's future, at last. Actually, none of the two remaining candidates suits well for Alitalia. AF-KL will basically work in transforming AZ as a regional feeder for Paris hub; apart tha this will create conflits with politicians over MXP and FCO status as hubs, it will basically go against the local demand of P2P connections, which in the past was exhacerbated by the growth of LCCs in the absence of a real national carrier capable of doing it. On the other hand, Air One is very tiny and quite few few profitable, if not really hard debted, to really succeed in a strategic turnaround like this, even if backed by some important banks. Air One currently is a very family-owned business with few managerial competences, and it looks quite complex to see how they could close this gap in the short term. Moreover, the combined Air One-Alitalia will have to pass over anti-trust decisions on the rich Milan-Rome trunk route and eventually find an international partner: stay with Air France or go with Lufthansa? Breaking the partnership with Skyteam would cost AZ some 150 million Euros, but probably would be a good strategic, provided that Germans will be willing to host the company in Star...