Summary
The biofuels and alternative energy project models that were originally based on feedstock materials from the food chain commodities have been shown to a failure, something many already knew.
Not only did they add to the upward pressures on food chain commodities, especially corn and soyoil, they brought added deforestation pressures in several developing economies.
Additional fertilizers and pressures on already low water supplies in some areas were additional exacerbations to the equation.
The new generation of feedstock for biofuel production will be from nonfood chain sources and will add new benefits into the biofuel equation.
Analysis
To begin this analysis first let me state that biofuels are viable alternatives for transport, heating and power generation fuels that are currently using fossil based fuels.
The key issues that are keeping them from being viable at the moment are linked to the following three issues:
Economical and sustainable supplies of non-foodchain feedstock that are capable of being produced without putting pressures on land and water resources.
Production facilities that can be economically viable and produce significant quantities of fuels without subsidies.
Consumer and manufacturer acceptance of the biofuels in all forms of the transport segments of economies.
Current research with algae and cellular growth technologies that have been shown to be close to becoming commercially viable in terms of production and cost will shortly (within 1 to 2 years) be operational.
Algae show promise, however, the production has to shift from the outdoor pond models to internal and enclosed systems. The comparative yield per acre of algae against any field grown agricultural crop is substantial. Palm oil at 600+ gallons of feedstock oil per acre versus in excess of 2,000 or more gallons for algae will not only provide levels of feedstock to get to substantial production levels of the biofuels but should help to hold pricing down for the front end of the production equation and thereby offering reasonable pricing while maintaining producer margins at levels that will help to ensure a sustainable production base.
At the moment costs are a major inhibiting factor to this going commercial as well as understanding how to achieve sustainable production levels in enclosed facilities as opposed to outdoor ponds requiring substantial land and removing the risk of natural occurances disrupting production environments.
Cellular technologies show even greater promise for large scale, commercially viable feedstock production. One process will produce 57 million gallons of feedstock oil for biofuel production in an enclosed facility requiring less than 10 acres and at a cost per gallon of approximately $0.40 per gallon, opening the door for substantial margins for the producers.
Research models also show that these processes sequester carbon and several processes have been developed that can take the emissions from fossil fuel fired power generating plants and bubble them up into the algae and cell cultures to provide nutrients for higher production while sequestering the CO2 and other environmentally damaging emissions. This has great promise in terms of adding economic viability to these feedstock production facilities while providing enormous environmental value to the already valuable equation that these alternative fuels offer.
New crops that can be grown on marginal to scrub lands and can also be used in rotation with other crops without the need for fertilizers or irrigation and that are not part of the foodchain are also in development which can also increase the supply of feedstock as well as help to lower the costs.
Alternative fuels do not have to be derived from the foodchain group of commodities and can become part of a solution to a number of economic and environmental issues for which governments around the world are seeking solutions.
The new models for alternative fuels are not far away from becoming reality and they will be done without the negative impacts the earlier production models produced and that have lead to a substantial of the production facilities worldwide being shuttered at the moment.
