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April 17, 2007

Big Challenges In Wild Oats Purchase

Analysis of: Whole Foods Gone Wild | www.fool.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Matthew Levine
Chief Executive Officer, Natural Business News
Implications: Many observers have written or stated that the purchase of Wild Oats is consistent with Whole Foods growth through acquisition.  This is wrong as the Oats purchase is vastly different from previous acquisitions which were of small, regional well-run chains..

Additionally,
the current environment for Whole Foods is in transition. Whole Foods has been losing high volume shoppers to places like Trader Joe’s for years and transitional natural and organic shoppers like Suzy New-Mom are going elsewhere too.

Analysis:

As noted above the purchase of Oats purchase is inconsistent with previous buyouts. The chains that WFM purchased on its way to revolutionizing the grocery business were regional, small chains  (usually between 10 to 20 stores) that were extremely well run leaders in their respective markets.  Among others, Mrs. Gooch’s in Southern California, Bread & Circus in the Boston area, Fresh Fields in the D.C. metropolitan area were all considered equals to Whole Foods. 

<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--><!--[endif]--> Wild Oats has always been a distant runner-up, plagued by an ill-advised growth strategy, yet at the same time blessed by the huge growth in the demand for natural and organic foods.  Currently its stores are a disparate group, with formats ranging all over the map in size, profitability and marketplace appeal. 

So if anyone thinks the Whole Foods purchase is pure opportunity they’re mistaken.  Integration efforts will be difficult. Look for WFM to close or sell between 30 to 40 stores.  Managing the integration of the remaining stores could distract resources and talent from Whole Foods  aggressive pre-acquisition growth strategy.  However, as key managers to take on Wild Oats stores as part of the merger, don’t expect existing Whole Foods stores to be impacted as the WFM talent well runs deep.

One of Whole Foods greatest unstated ‘assets’ has been the consistent poor performance of conventional grocers in capturing natural and organic shoppers.  Most recently this has changed. As more conventional stores create natural formats (Supervalu's Sunflower, Publix Greenwise) and places like Safeway’s Lifestyle stores the real battle is beginning.  Once, transitional natural shopping dollars have been headed for Whole Foods coffers. Today, more than ever, she can buy organic milk and baby food for her newborn elsewhere these days--Safeway, Kroger, and of course Wal-Mart and Target too.

So while we doubt that if a conventional chain had purchased Oats, this pattern would have gotten more dramatic, we do know the obvious: that by purchasing Oats, Whole Foods has kept the competition from getting instant access, albeit poorly run access, to the natural and organic market. 

Managing the disposal/integration of 110 new stores in this newly competitive market means that WFM will have more than same store sales figures to worry about.



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