Beginning To Look Like 2002 For The PMA-ILWU Negotiations

Implications: Despite the change in leadership at both the PMA and ILWU, commitment to early negotiations, and a clampdown on rhetoric in the press, the situation is starting to resemble the 2002 talks that led to a 10-day lockout.

Analysis: Stevedore negotiations on the West Coast were supposed to be a stark contrast to the acrimony of 2002 that led to a 10-day lockout and massive backlog of ships.  Both the union and the PMA changed their leadership, and there was much public commitment to a smooth negotiation process.  This became even more important with West Coast container volumes down significantly from 2007.

The contract expiration date came and went, with both sides continuing to negotiate, and no evidence of work actions.  Both sides touted major points having been agreed to.

However, this apparently pleasant negotiating environment seems to be falling apart.  The American Shipper reports that the PMA is claiming that coordinated work actions, such as simultaneous coffee breaks and work-to-rule behavior is decreasing productivity by 20 to 30%.  For their part, the ILWU is minimizing the effect of the actions, while not specifically disputing them.

For those who remember 2002, this is eerily familiar.  We are only a couple of weeks past the contract expiration, and already the agreement to avoid public accusations and work actions has been abandoned.  Neither side can afford a repeat of the 2002 debacle, yet each seems destined to follow the same tired playbook.  Ironically, it will be US exporters who will lose this time, as the weak dollar has prompted a boom for domestic manufacturers.