Be careful what you wish for

Implications: Big box retailers are training consumers to shop early or shop late with no really compelling reasons to shop in between. The increasingly promotional activities before Thanksgiving, lead by Wal-Mart this year, followed up by unprecedented pricing on Black Friday created a tough first half of December for retailers, and a nerve racking final days of the pre-Christmas shopping period. 

Analysis: In consumer electronics in particular, a category that is enjoying tremendous demand, competitive practices, not consumer appetite, is undermining recent retail results. Irrational pricing, and, with just a very few exceptions, abundant product availability has created an environment for consumers where there is no real down side to waiting until the last minute to buy, and more than likely they will actually be rewarded with lower prices if they do.

The amount and degree of discounting and promotion on Black Friday clearly projected to the market just how aggressive retailers are willing to get, and signaled to many consumers that they should wait until the last possible moment to shop again before Christmas as retailers will get increasingly aggressive as it closes in on Christmas day, rewarding those who wait with special offers and lower prices.

While many retailers reported very robust black Friday traffic and sales, retail results are showing that consumers made almost surgical strikes - coming in to buy exactly what they were after -the $349 laptop computers and $999 plasma TVs - and leaving without buying much more.  As retailers get more sophisticated about their Black Friday execution with practice drills for the sales teams and fully developed processes and SOPs to ensure a smooth operation on the big day, consumers are also getting more savvy, getting in and getting out with what they specifically came in for, and avoiding getting caught up in a larger buying frenzy.

Try as they might to spread holiday shopping more evenly over the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas, retailers are actually training consumers to shop early or shop late with very little in between. As the final weekend before Christmas approaches traffic is now building again. This weekend and the week after Christmas will be the biggest shopping period of the season for the big box retailers.