Summary
US and Iran agree to cooperate in how Iranian gas exports will be made available to western markets
Analysis
It is a new gesture and one that has been on close hold for some time. It was likely given added impetus owing to the Saturday announcement by the respective governments of Abkhazia and south Ossetia requesting for the presence of and endorsing the use of Russian Border troops to patrol inside their nation's borders. These troops are the legacy of the old KGB border troops wearing the distinctive green and blue peaked caps. They are now under the control of the KGB successor force FSB. Their significance is that they receive similar training as Russian Alpha troops and Spetznaz special force units. This development is a worrisome sign of an already tense bilateral relationship between Georgia and Russia. Following the two week war last August the Russian's annexed the former Georgian loading port at Poti on the Black Sea and have built a major ongoing naval presence there that now forces Georgia to export crude oil transiting its borders from Kazakhstan Azerbaijan as well as natural gas via Turkmenistan and the other former CIS "stans" via the terminus at Tuapse. BP, the operator of the pipeline allowing for crude oil transit from Chevron's Kazakhstan and other producers in Azerbaijan was forced to shut the line down for almost three weeks last August. In another parlous development twelve people were murdered last Friday at the Oil Academy in Baku by forces yet unknown- but who may have been contracted by the Russian "organs" for some wet work to stir up the pot so to speak. Far from harmonic the convergence of these events perhaps led the USG to speed up its announcement of favoring Tehran's use of the Nabucco outlet which, as I understand it, was on the agenda of the ongoing backroom discussions between the USG and RGI. Certainly a nod in this direction is favorable to US interests in the G2K region, as the Russian's used the Georgian conflict to steal a march on its real coup- that being the Assad government in Damascus rush to grant Russia a permanent naval facility for the Russian Navy at Banias and Tartous. Work has been almost continuous as a flotilla of special operating ships ranging from grapnel and dredges as well as concrete pouring barges have accompanied the Russian fleet into Syria. Moreover the Iraqi federal government has sanctioned the re-opening of the 1mmb/d pipeline between Kirkuk, via Mosul that will allow the export of northern sourced Iraqi crude from Kurdistan to makes its way into Syria to meet inland demand this freeing Syria and the Russian's by partnership to sell the attractive Souedie crude oil FOB and CIF ex- Banias and Tartous into the Mediterranean and northwest European spot and term markets. In sum the Russians have made a grand re-entry into Middle East petroleum markets something that they lost when abandoning south Yemen and the PDYR government in 1990 with a follow on in Iraq during Desert Storm. More significantly, Russia's securing a permanent naval base in the Mediterranean accomplishes a strategic goal thwarted by the Turks and later the British during the Crimean War. Syria gains a big power military presence and a diplomatic ally in the Kremlin which gives political avoirdupois in the effort to counter Washington's isolation of Syria. Iran and the USG share a similar desire to keep western Afghanistan from reeling out of control. Tehran wants to crack down on the heroin trade emanating from there as well as to stem the illegal and socially unwelcome exodus of Afghan refugees from the region. The US , in supporting Iran, gains a silent partner at the least who can both mediate with the Taliban and/or crack down on them which perhaps will ameliorate the growing military resurgence in western Afghanistan where increasing numbers of US troops are being killed in renewed fighting as evidenced over the weekend. Washington has felt itself increasingly alone as western European allies are increasingly becoming tired in this ongoing war-especially the Germans. I would expect the publicity and full scope of this story will be held in abeyance until after the outcome of the June elections' in Iran. That being said, the story leaked today, in my opinion, was a deliberate effort that both Washington and Tehran agreed upon beforehand. It is, if one can get past the right wing GOP gibberish, a significant diplomatic and political development-- one that Arlen Specter will side with in his new role as a yellow dog Democrat. With the likely addition of Al Franken to the Senate any GOP railing will sound like the sour grapes of an increasingly non-relevant GOP. Credit goes to the White House and the State Department who are demonstrating a real politik not seen in the last thirty years. Adult leadership seems to hold sway and one can take courage in its restoration.
