BT Purchases of Ciena’s CN 3000 Could Get Much Bigger/Adtran Update

Implications: 1. Given Ciena’s very conservative forecasts, industry analysts are bending over backwards to find a shortfall at BT.
2. This inclination by these observers is somewhat ironic for a couple of reasons.
3. Adtran reportedly has a new large contract in North America.

Analysis:

Much concern has been raised recently regarding Ciena and their dire projections of a 20% growth year over year. In reality this is probably ultra conservative given the current market place. Every day, or so it seems, Ciena makes another announcement regarding a new customer for the CN4200.

It has always been apparent that BT would need a breather temporarily from its humongous procurement from Ciena.  Every large network needs a little time to absorb such a massive deployment, particularly in the CN21 network. It is tough for the engineers and planners to keep up with the workload without a breather. 

In addition, recent reports that Ciena will sell even more CN 3000s to BT than initially believed is most likely true. This comes about because of alleged problems that ADVA is having with a comparable solution.  

In fact, it is truly remarkable that BT is depending on Ciena as what looks to increasingly be a key strategic supplier.  Several years ago,  Ciena was being carefully scrutinized in a big way.  This may have led to BT placing strong penalties on companies winning bids in the CN21 deals.

 As far as Adtran is concerned, it reportedly just received a substantial contract from TelMex for its TA 5000 systems.  If they also receive the AT&T bid as expected, then they will have achieved some lost stature.