Summary
BP and China National Petroleum Corporation have signed a service contract with Iraq's South Oil Company to expand production from the field located near Basra. The plan is to triple production to almost 3 million bbl/day. BP and CNPC plan to invest $15 billion over 20 years to raise production to a plateau level of 2.85 million bbl/day. BP has gained field information as a result of a three year technical assistance program and has historic information dating to the discovery in 1953.
Analysis
Rumaila, discovered in 1953 produces from around 10,800 feet. Rumaila North, discovered in 1958 is shallower, producing from 10,000 feet. The last field production rate that I can find in the Oil & Gas Journal is for 1974 when Rumaila produced 620,600 bbl/day from 30 flowing wells. That same year, North Rumaila produced 121,800 bbl/day from30 flowing wells.In August 2008, the Journal of Petroleum Technology published a study of Rumaila field. The field is under natural water drive which supports a production rate of about 650,000 bbl/day. Higher production rates cause a sharp pressure decline with gas evolution in the reservoir. Around 1980, production rate was greatly increased to 1.3 million bbl/day but it was impossible to maintain. The problem with the field today is that massive water encroachment from both eastern and western flanks have sharply reduced the potential of the field. With solution gas drive fields, production can be increased with horizontal drilling along the bottom of the reservoir, below the secondary gas cap. In Rumaila, water has advanced up structure to the point where it appears that this will always be a problem. Modern completion technology has resulted in production rates that seem almost miraculous. But limits always exist. The 2008 study shows that production rate in the mid-1990s was around 350,000 bbl/day rate. Since then, production has been erratic as a result of the disorder in Iraq. From the data, it appears that getting up to 2.85 million bbl/day is a herculean task. But maybe new technology will come to the rescue.
