Summary
With Edmonds.com and J.D. Power agreeing that June auto sales will top 10 million on an annualized rate, and incentives at an all-time high, it remains to be seen if the passage of the "Cash for Clunkers" legislation will be enough to draw customers into showrooms and spark sales.
Analysis
June sales will hit their highest level of 2009 with a SAAR of 10.1 million when automakers report them Wednesday.
New vehicle sales, fleet and retail, will total 887,000 units for June, a 25.3% decrease from June 2008 and a 3.9% decline from May. Last June, gas prices were soaring to record heights creating an atypical mix of vehicle sales, causing the category mix to be weighted towards anything fuel efficient.
This June has settled into a more normal mix. In fact, compact cars this June dropped more than any other segment while SUVs, trucks and bigger cars staged a comeback.
Premium luxury cars, minivans, large SUVs and subcompact cars, in that order, are the only categories to show a May-to-June hike.
The Big 7 look to do as follows:
Chrysler will be down 29.1% from June '08 and up 5.3% from May, for a market share of 9.4%.
Ford will be down 15.6% from June '08 and down 7.7% from May, for a market share of 16.6%, up from 14.7% in '08.
GM will be down 28.9% from June '08 and down 2.1% from May for a market share of 21.1%, compared to 22.1% in '08.
Honda will be down 31.4% from June '08 and up 1.3% from May for a market share of 11.2%, down from 12.2% in '08.
Hyundai/Kia will be down 14.7% from June '08 and down 6.0% from May for a market share of 7.5% compared to 6.6% in '08.
Nissan will be down 28.7% from June '08 and down 14.8% from May for a market share of 6.5%, up slightly from 6.4% in '08.
Toyota will be down 28.7% from June '08 and 9.7% from May for a market share of 15.5% down from 16.3% in '08.
Where do we go from here? Don't count on the "Cash For Clunkers" doing much, however, for the first time in 18 months I'm inclined to agree that the worst is over. By 2010 we should surpass 10.5 million and hit 11 million in 2011. But the 16-17 million sales we saw a few years ago? Not for a long time.
