Auto Sales Are Down---Let's Take Another Look At The Numbers

Implications: The auto industry's sales slump deepened sharply in March amid a powerful economic downturn. Even the once invincible imports are feeling the pinch. But, do the numbers tell the whole story?

Analysis: In a market trending down, as darker and darker clouds gather on the horizon, it is telling-not to mention entertaining see how the auto makers spinmeisters comment on the monthly sales trends.

Actual numbers cited each month by the various interested parties usually vary a bit depending on how they're segmented and crunched, and whether the various number of selling days month-by-month is factored into the stats (eg WardsAuto, Reuters) or not (eg The Associated Press). There were 26 sale days last month compared with 28 last March, AP said.

But there was no sugar-coating the bald March facts - WardsAuto.com calculated total industry light vehicle sales off 5.3% to 1,351,864 for March with cars down 1.7% to 583,780 units while "light duty trucks" (mostly pickups and SUVs/crossovers but not unknown to include the likes of Chrysler's PT Cruiser) were down a hefty 11.5% to 688,084.

Wards also splits the numbers into domestics and import (ie foreign-owned brands, rather then overseas-made units.) And there was more to furrow brows in Detroit last month: domestic cars were off 0.6% while imports picked up 6.7%; U.S. light truck sales fell 12% while imports were off a lesser 9%.

How individual brands fared gets interesting depending on who crunched the numbers. AP reckons Ford Sales were off 14% while, significantly, Toyota's fell 10% and Honda's 3%. But WardsAuto.com, factoring in that daily selling rate, says Ford was only off 7.4% and Toyota 3.4%, while Honda posted a 4.2% rise. Go figure!

We'll go with the Wards numbers: Chrysler was down 13.5% in March and off 15.8% TYD; GM off 12.5% March and 10.9 YTD; Ford off 7.4% in March and-7.4% YTD.

Key imports? Toyota's March sales again trounced Chrysler. Honda was up 4.2% in March and only off 0.4% YTD and Nissan was up 3.6% last month and down 3.3% YTD.

The way the automakers spun the March results was interesting. Ford, issued a press statement with sound bites from in-house sales analyst George Pipas.

"Although Ford's total sales were down 14% in March, both the Focus and Edge were the highlights of March."

Chrysler vice chairman and president Jim Press stayed off the numbers as well he might with sales down 15.5% YTD: "We are in a period where the public hears about the economy every day and it is clearly having an impact on our industry. At the same time, this market environment is driving more customers to our newest value-oriented, fuel efficient vehicles." Huh?

Honda's executive vp, Dick Tolliver took a similar stay-off-the numbers approach; "The Honda product portfolio is adapting well to the current direction of the marketplace." 

My spin? If it turns out to be a lousy year, and all indications are that it will, it is not because of the cars. Having just visited the New York Auto Show, I can tell you the cars have the right stuff.