Summary
Forest's Lexapro commands a $2.5+ billion USD market share, just in the US. Due to such a high volume of the brand product, Aurobindo's tentative approval on Lexapro's generic Escitalopram will be a great opportunity - primarily if they can procure a 6 month period of exclusivity from the FDA. Additionally, despite being a brand name product, Lexapro holds an 8%+ year over year increase in the past 3 years. Hence, the market for the drug in September of 2011 when the patent runs out will be closer to a $3 billion market.
Analysis
Forest Pharmaceuticals' Lexapro currently is one of the top prescribed brand name products not only in the US, but also the world (marketed as different names in other countries).
I foresee many companies jumping in to get the approval from the FDA on the generic Escitalopram. Unless Aurobindo procures the 6 month period of exclusivity, I would anticipate a dramatic price degradation upon approval and patent expiration. The real winner of this generic approval will be the company to procure that exclusivity.
Additionally, the earliest we will see companies profiting from this will around mid-late 2011, as the patent expires on 9/14/2011.
Be very watchful of this generic, and other generics coming out for various blockbusters [brands] as Pfizer's Lipitor, Merck's Singulair and Wyeth's Effexor XR.
Aemad A. Aslam
MindPharma
