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April 24, 2008

Apple update.

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Joe Weingarten
Executive Director, Macintosh Reseller Association
Implications: Also see: Belgium to receive unlocked iPhones? http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/04/23/belgian.iphone.plans/ Apple Buys A Chip Company http://www.businessweek.com/technology/ByteOfTheApple/blog/archives/2008/04/apple_buys_a_ch.html Apple Q2 conference call: 10 million iPhones? No problem http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/04/23/apple-q2-2008-conference-call Behind the words is an indication Apple is changing marketing plan relative to the iPhone. Steve can't always be right.

Analysis: Record sales and record profits except for iPhones at 1.7 million units, now if you project that out its 6.8 million units per year and even if you add an extra 1 million for the holiday season you are still way below the 10 million projected per year. Even with Apple expanding it's market base form the USA to Europe it still has not managed to meet its projections for the iPhone. It was saved by the increase in sales of computers. iPods were flat as it is a mature product badly in need of a refresh.

Two more factors are coming into play. First was the missing iPhones that turned up worldwide and not within the Apple locked system. Then of course the need to expand the sales of the phone to other areas of the world which resulted in the second factor. The failure to gain enterance into China due to the locked marketing plan. It now appears that Apple is going to move ahead with unlocked phones to try and booster sales of the product. This can be found in a number of rumors over the past few days of unlocked phones that will be sold in a number of areas such as Belgium. If these prove to be within profit projections for Apple, then they may be able to move into China. The revenue sharing plan put forth by Mr. Jobs appears to be in trouble and it also appears Apple is switching its marketing concept for the phone.

On another front Apple purchased a chip company with the view to use its engineering talent to develop its own chips. It also provides Apple a means of keeping secret what it is developing, not as possible as in the past when they are using the same chip as everyone else and the chip roadmaps are out in the open for all to see.  If they own their own chip foundry, no more leaks. Also these chips are based on the old Power PC architecture, which Apple dropped n favor of the Intel chips. But it does mean the Apple engineers are familar working with these.  Watch iPods to use these chips. One factor that is overlooked is that PA Semi is a defense contractor. Will the Department of Defense approve this sale? Maybe yes, maybe no.


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