Summary
Part 2: With Thai's bye-bye, the definitive list of A380 deferrals in 2009 so far now stands at eight airlines: Air France-KLM, British Airways, China Southern, Kingfisher, Lufthansa, Qantas, Thai Airways and Virgin Atlantic, or 53% of the orderbook by airline for this ridiculous straight-to-airshow embarrassment of an aircraft.
Analysis
Part 2: This latest deferral therefore means no A380 cash flow for EADS from the struggling Thai carrier for at least three-and-a-half-years past the original schedule -- lucky supply chain indeed, since billions of dollars are not being collected by EADS for onward disbursement.
It is also highly likely that a significant portion of current deferrals will be canceled altogether and the A380 will settle down to a long-term jobs-club production rate of about one aircraft per month, maximum.
Contrast that with one farcical forecast from less then three years ago, claiming "...Airbus would deliver 380 A380s by 2015" , with another 500 by 2025. Airbus will be lucky to have delivered 100 A380s by 2015, far less 380, the way things are going. Very lucky.
Airbus agreed to delay deliveries of the A380?
Contrast that with one farcical forecast from less then three years ago, claiming "...Airbus would deliver 380 A380s by 2015" , with another 500 by 2025. Airbus will be lucky to have delivered 100 A380s by 2015, far less 380, the way things are going. Very lucky.
Airbus agreed to delay deliveries of the A380?
As if it had any choice... And for the plane-spotting bloggers who can't believe the situation's as constipated as it actually is, with only four A380s delivered in 2009 to the end of July, check out this planespotters' paradise.
The Airbus A380: coming soon to an airshow near you.
The Airbus A380: coming soon to an airshow near you.
Doug McVitie, MA consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
