Android's Risk Factors in Taking on Apple: Multiple Winners in the Wireless OS Battle

Implications: Google's Android starts with one big disadvantage -- time -- and one big advantage -- brand name.  But they are competing against another huge brand in Apple who also controlled the hardware and software.  Though this is directly in line with their strategy, they are leaving part of the OS war winner platform up to chance.

Analysis: Google has a huge hurdle with Android, one that Apple did not have.  Google is highly dependent on handset manufacturers and software developers to deliver a great product.  Apple controlled the hardware, in addition to most of the on-phone software.  When we look deeper into this, we see the huge advantage that Apple had by controlling the experience. 

1) The handset manufacturers have been extremely poor innovators, and Apple hardware -- in its slim, stream-lined design, few buttons, and gorgeous screen -- redefined elegance in smartphone manufacture.  Google is depending on these manufacturers to create the experience on which Android will ride.

2) The user interface on the phone, featuring multi-touch, iTunes music, a greatly improved Safari web experience, and several Google products (most notably Google Maps and YouTube) was seamless and enabled the first truly multi-media device.  (Voice almost as an after-thought.)  Google is dependent on on-phone software, and the manufacturers and carriers have a very bad history here.

3) The first few phones are critical.  Android only has one chance to make a first impression.  Though that won't be the end of the argument, it will make a substantial impact, and this is a risk to Google.

4) Apple has a huge brand lead.  As Google does in search (of course, not that much), Google has a big obstacle to overcome that is irrelevant to their end product.  Of course, Google also has a strong brand name so that is a help.

Let's face it -- Apple and Google are walking through HUGE doors left by the Worthless Application Protocol (WAP), Microsoft Im-mobile, and the absurd renditions by Palm and RIM.  Symbian didn't raise the bar like it could have.  And the new Linux endeavor by the LiMo Foundation will also shake things up.

So the playing field is a new one: one that Apple's OS will emerge a winner in (I promise:).  But there will be multiple winners, and Android has a good shot.  They just need to overcome the risk factors that Apple avoided by control and speed to market.