Amgen Stock Set to Take a Fall!

Implications: 1)  Amgen's and J&J's ESA products are going to continue to receive more black box warnings from the FDA. 2)  A federal Judge may force Amgen to accept a royalty from Roche, allowing their CERA ESA to come to market in the USA. 3)  Their is potential for more problems to arise, in the way of side effects associated with EPO products in patients with Chronic Renal Disease and End Stage Renal Disease. 4)  Affymax, makers of a new drug called Hematide, is in phase III human trials and has the potential to finally beat Amgen's ESA patents. My strong suggestion:  Investors should buy Affymax stock.

Analysis:  Yes, it's true that Amgen is going to continue to receive more black label warnings on its ESA drugs.  However, that is only the beginning of Amgen's woes.Presently, a federal judge is on the verge of forcing Amgen to accept a set royalty from Roche, allowing them to bring their ESA drug CERA to market in the USA.  Furthermore, a possibly more importantly, Affymax's new ESA drug, Hematide, is in phase three human trials.  Affymax's ESA works in a totally different way than Amgen's or Roche's ESA's.  This gives Affymax a clear green light to walk around Amgen's ESA patents, which begin sunsetting in 2013.For those who want to buy Amgen stock, I would suggest waiting until it bottoms out before buying.  But, more importantly, I highly suggest that investors take a long hard look at Affymax and their new product Hematide.  If this drug receives FDA approval, it could blow Amgen's and Roche's ESA's out of the water.  My bet is on Affymax.

As for Amgen, sell now, before you lose your pants.