Summary
Yes the trend will continue, but with limitations, for now. China IS most definitely already a source for pharmaceutical manufacturing, but has a long way to go before becoming an independent creator of pharmaceutical intellectual property. Once it can, then outsourcing will really take off.
Analysis
China has immense capability in manufacturing and huge capacity for growth but still someway to go before become a force in intellectual property development.
As a nation they are excellent at working under clear direction with detailed instructions and plenty of expert handholding; ensuring that wherever possible responsibility is pushed upwards to avoid blame if things go wrong.
This is already working with reasonable success in the contract manufacturing of generic pharmaceutical products; although not without significant problems. Where a manufacturer is given a full product composition, analytical methods AND specifications; the cost benefits can be realised. Yes, they are cheaper than India when comparing cost of product only; they are still more expensive when considering the 'total' cost of transfering a product to a new facility.
Ask a Chinese company to develop a new generic (bearing in mind this is a copy of an already originated drug) and they struggle to know where to start. Most the IP being used in China still comes from a small collection of university linked organisations or collections of PHD's who have realised there worth in a country lacking an R&D capability.
Until Chinese companies are capable of taking on the creative elements of pharmaceutical development they will remain behind India and many other outsourcing favorites. Once a sufficient number of western experienced nationals return, then we will see China really making a challenge and it will be a big play when they do!
Now is the time to start building relationships; to become a friend now means you won't be so much of a foe in the future.
