Summary
1. Ericsson and Nokia-Siemens will probably become the dominant vendors in the US public equipment market. 2. Other players including Adtran, Ciena, Fujitsu, and Tellabs will continue to fill in important gaps. 3. It is just a matter of time before Huawei becomes a major player in the States.
Analysis
Anybody in sourcing at a US large carrier is starting to think about the long-term viability of Alcatel-Lucent. When there are other options, it is going to be increasingly difficult to justify making investments in equipment with the French supplier. Another “year of transition,” could be one year too long. Alcatel-Lucent’s CEO could be “seeing stronger orders in North America,” but the vendor will not necessarily be receiving them.
In “winning massive contracts with the transition from 2G to 3G in China,” there seems to be a consensus that Alcatel-Lucent is not making much money on them. The customers in China had to know how desperately the vendor needed these wins.
Supporters of Alcatel-Lucent will point to certain results as exceeding or meeting expectations. However, if they believe that they are signs of long-term, good health, they are walking on thin ice.
