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October 6, 2008

Aging cycles key to accelerated technology development.

Analysis of: This is the car of the future | www.nationalpost.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Jeff Moser
President, West Branch LLC
Implications: Key automotive technologies are measured by two primary metrics:  performance and long term durability. Automotive components and systems are exposed to extreme conditions on a daily basis and OEMs must accurately simulate these in testing if they are to bring new technologies to market in a timely fashion.  

Analysis: Vehicles are now expected to last 8 - 10 years and 125K - 200K miles to meet customer expectations.  Many OEMs warranty key powertrain systems for 10 years / 100K miles and rely on accelerated aging protocols to simulate a lifetime of driving in a matter of weeks.  Engines and transmissions are run on dynamometers at full speed and load for several hundred hours, mimicking the wear and tear of 3000 - 4000 hours of real world speed at 60 mph or so.   Other components are subjected to salt spray baths, intense ultraviolet light banks, and extreme heating and cooling cycles to simulate weathering and environmental exposure.

Conventional batteries are susceptible to temperature based deterioration and damage from deep discharge cycling.  Advanced battery compositions for hybrid and electric drive systems will have different Achilles heels and will have to be thoroughly tested with rigorous FEMA [Failure  Modes and  Effects Analysis] design tools and test protocols.

Some systems [like catalytic converters]  can be tested at elevated temperatures and compressed times but this 'accelerated aging' approach is not always representative.  Some components age or deteriorate differently under accelerated conditions and false positive or false negative results may preclude this approach.

Compounding the problem are the issues with scale up from lab samples to mass production - many new battery designs are limited to hand built or pilot scale production runs; high volume production may introduce additional variability or new potential failure modes into the product.

OEMs have made significant advances in design and testing methods for all their systems but next generation batteries must stand the test of time before the market will fully embrace their longevity vs. established powertrain warranty benchmarks.     


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