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August 27, 2007

A win-win for BofA and Countrywide

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Joe Garrett
Principal Consultant, Garrett, Watts & Co
Implications: It's good for the industry.  Sends a signal that there will be winners, that there will be money to be made in this business.  It does seem, however, like very expensive capital for Countrywide, especially when you compare it to their preferred converts last year or earlier this year which were in the 2-3% range and out of the money.  This seeminlgy implies how desperate Countrywide must have been.

Analysis: It buys time for Countrywide to weather this storm.  Countrywide has been picking up lots of retail salesmen the past few months as their competitors failed. 

With this new capital to give them breathing room, they should be able to come out with an even more dominant market share than prior.  They recently had a 16-17% market share, and given their taking on all these news salespeople, and given how much of their competition has gone away, it's not impossible to imagine then getting to a 25-33% of the origination market.

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
In for a penny In for a pound...
August 24, 2007, Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Did Bank of America Pull a Warren Buffett?
August 23, 2007, Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC

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