Summary
An upturn in sales is a positive. Is this the start of a trend? What will the tend line look like? These are the critical questions. The economic recovery, consumer confidence and home sales will drive the trend.
Analysis
It's not clear if this means the "Seasonably Adjusted Annual Rate" (SAAR), the best indicator, or just the annualized rate based on June sales. It's good to see an upturn. But, let's keep in mind that the incentives are again at a high level as the carmakers sell off their 09 models to prepare for the 10s. Maybe the Chapter 11 filings have customers breathing a little easier as GM and Chrysler get past a long period of uncertainty. The more interesting data to see will be the market shares of the various makes during June. The fact that sales are up is positive. The more interesting data will be the trend over the next four to six months. The auto recovery is not likely to be a quick one. The economic recovery, consumer confidence and home sales will drive the results to come.
