Summary
It seems that the scenario of 75000 job cuts due to alcohol tax increase is a worst case estimation. Current global economic climate is condusive of spirits category growth, especially at-home consumption. I believe this growth in the off-premise business would off-set some of the volume loss due to price increase and, therefore, the job loss impact would not be as dramatic.
Analysis
We should, however, expect a sizeable drop in the on-premise business, both due to the economy, and to price increase due to excise tax hike.
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
