4G - still one generation away

Implications: Both WiMAX and LTE are stepping stones to the "real" mobile broadband marketplace where ubiquitous, high bandwidth, quality services are available on a device independent basis. The ITU has set in motion the next step to 4G by announcing the preliminary specifications for a 4G technology solution for mobile broadband - called IMT-Advanced. WiMAX is offering up 802.16m and LTE is offering up LTE-Advanced as their initial offerings into the standards processes. It will be a 3 to 4 year process and more importantly spark of yet more demand for spectrum.

Analysis: For the industry this can only be good, set a new standard for which more than one party aspires and where the goals are high enough that its an all out competition to see who gets to win or score the most points by getting more of their technology adopted.

Behind the infrastructure players, who will benefit whatever the outcome, are 2 important sets of players;

Semiconductor - e.g. Intel, Qualcomm - who will get their silicon embedded in more handsets and laptops than anyone else.

Mobile Operators - will they manage to maintain their stranglehold on the handset/device market and end users.

The key for analysts will be up front R&D spend, expect to see billions and then infrastructure and here expect to see tens of billions.

This means the end user is not going to see "free high speed broadband", somebody is going to have to pay.