3D Bottleneck on 10/2

Doubtless the decision by Disney to go on 10/2 with the Toy Story 3D combo (TS3D) was made a long time ago with little knowledge of the likely success of the somewhat surprising Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (CWCM).  That decision appears to have turned out to be unfavorable for both Disney and Sony this past weekend (10/2/09).

 

From the first to the second weeks, CWCM dropped less than 20%. These days in a world of huge theatre counts, the first week to the second week percentage drop is the largest as theatres scramble to accommodate all possible customers on the first week and are then forced to pare back seat and or screen counts on the next week to accommodate new openings. Post the second week, the holdover percentages tend to stabilize at a higher level.

 

However when, as Disney did last weekend, another distributor drops in a film of similar genre, deviation from the norm is introduced. Even more challenge to the prior opening film is introduced when there is a decided competition for a relatively small universe of screens available to play both films as in the case with the 3D situation the weekend of 10/2/09.

 

A few points:

·        CWCM opened to some 1400+ 3D runs on 9/25

·        Final Destination had a few less, but around 1400 in its release a few weeks earlier

·        TS3D looks to have had about 1600+ runs

·        CWCM 3D count dropped by at least 700 runs week 2 to week 3 while total run count fell a little less as some of the 3D runs went into other formats.

·        Around 550 or so of the CWCM 3D runs on week 3 were in played in the same theatres as the TS3D.

·        The CWCM continuing 3D runs dropped about 20% per run from week 2 to week 3 a little less than we might expect, but in line with a strong holdover.

·        The CWCM total gross dropped about 40% from week 2 to week 3

 

What can we learn from this? First and foremost, The Toy Story combo might have increased its gross a fair amount had it had a clear run for 3D screens. Obviously there was more seating capacity for 3D than was allocated to the TS Combo. Whether it needed the additional seating is unclear because capacity information for auditoriums at specific show times is not available. One would expect though that in at least some locations, dual screens and staggered show times would have boosted the numbers.

 

Second, Meatballs was gravely wounded. I expect that at around 4.75 million box office dollars (80% of the previous weekend versus 60% of the previous weekend) were sacrificed to Toy Story 3D Combo on the weekend of 10/2. 

 

There does not seem to be any slackening in the pace of 3D production and there will be no shortage of bottlenecks like this in the next year or so without some careful management of release dates and a meaningful increase in available 3D screens. Given the ability of 3D to generate higher revenues through an enhanced experience surcharge of some 30%, there should be but one question that will stand in the way of exhibition’s pursuit of greater 3D capacity. Is 3D a lasting phenomenon or an exciting but short term fad?